Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 1.028145 1.199676 1.390611 1.618871 1.884340 2.183383 2.545900
2024-12-29 0.794233 1.034661 1.332487 1.728425 2.241115 2.882887 3.748049
2025-01-05 0.614098 0.864789 1.199679 1.679559 2.349822 3.253507 4.566309
2025-01-12 0.492340 0.738748 1.088781 1.621930 2.413882 3.548007 5.298705
2025-01-19 0.406144 0.643845 0.999953 1.571776 2.467616 3.819111 6.017681
2025-01-26 0.358429 0.596773 0.971190 1.601422 2.636731 4.272786 7.061501
2025-02-02 0.335269 0.583704 0.991180 1.707091 2.934968 4.958818 8.558001
2025-02-09 0.305987 0.555269 0.980834 1.758853 3.147672 5.527900 9.930492
2025-02-16 0.276681 0.521975 0.956732 1.781715 3.310515 6.028077 11.242815
2025-02-23 0.248472 0.486259 0.922880 1.781013 3.428326 6.459006 12.479455
2025-03-02 0.222296 0.450460 0.883724 1.764158 3.511835 6.833836 13.653429
2025-03-09 0.203123 0.425497 0.861492 1.776072 3.650306 7.325173 15.108585
2025-03-16 0.177666 0.384948 0.804785 1.714378 3.639730 7.535713 16.053490
2025-03-23 0.172472 0.386078 0.832521 1.830381 4.009584 8.555321 18.802435
2025-03-30 0.152740 0.352962 0.784445 1.778651 4.017020 8.826556 19.996500
2025-04-06 0.134849 0.321351 0.735330 1.717642 3.995224 9.030919 21.067507
2025-04-13 0.119828 0.294174 0.692399 1.664547 3.983522 9.254255 22.207660
2025-04-20 0.112335 0.283771 0.686248 1.695931 4.171014 9.947511 24.527375
2025-04-27 0.110534 0.287000 0.712362 1.807797 4.564367 11.163544 28.251774
2025-05-04 0.105305 0.280875 0.715150 1.862594 4.824985 12.095454 31.399128
2025-05-11 0.098819 0.270590 0.706320 1.886796 5.011645 12.869141 34.247062
2025-05-18 0.091681 0.257561 0.688818 1.886053 5.133458 13.494397 36.789624
2025-05-25 0.084421 0.243188 0.666009 1.868209 5.207770 14.007015 39.100429